Communication Afrique Destinations

POLITICS/ MALI - FIGHT AGAINST JIHADISM: After Barkhane's departure, what has changed?

Colonel Assimi Goïta, the President of Mali
Colonel Assimi Goïta, the President of Mali.

Mali led by Colonel Assimi Goïta not only pushed France to leave its country but also accused it before the UN of having "collected information for the benefit of terrorist groups" in order to "drop arms and ammunition”. Very serious accusations for which the authorities of the country were however unable to provide formal proof to the General Assembly of the UN of 2022. Contrary to what they had let believe.

“The country is in a difficult situation, but we have decided to meet all the actors of civil society, the political class as well as all the executives and clerks of the State, to formulate recommendations for ending the crisis. As citizens, we must contribute to the construction of the country. Our recommendations will be forwarded to the authorities.” It is in particular in these terms that the president of the High Islamic Council (HCIM), Cheick Chérif made his public appearance at the end of December 2022.

Contrary to the assertions of the military junta in power, Cheick Chérif Ousmane Madani Haidara, although having decided to accompany the Malian authorities, nevertheless did not fail to underline his disappointment. Faced with the socio-political situation raging in the country, he let out a few short sentences that say a lot about his resentment. While indicating that the situation has worsened, he said: "it's not going well, neither in terms of security, nor in terms of food". And he invited all the other religious leaders in the country to speak the truth without hesitation to President Assimi Goïta and his men, recommending them "to give advice and to tell the truth to the authorities if they are on the wrong path".

Victoria Nuland, the US Under-Secretary of State for Political Affairs who toured West Africa from October 16 and 20, 2022. She notably exchanged with the authorities of Mauritania, Mali, Niger and from Burkina Faso. Her observation could not have been clearer, namely that the jihadist threat is gaining momentum in West Africa. And she warned everyone about the temptation of the Wagner mercenaries.

Regarding Burkina Faso, spoke about terrorism, the Wagner temptation and the political transition. In her press conference sanctioning her tour, she thus declared: “The Burkinabè interim president, Ibrahim Traoré, was unambiguous. The Burkinabè will themselves defend the security of their nation. They have no intention of calling on the Wagner group. We were very clear with him about the risks incurred if one day they changed their minds. And we talked about how to continue to support the army's efforts to repel terrorists, without external support from Russia and Wagner”.

About Mali where the Wagner mercenaries are already well established there, Victoria Nuland clearly indicated that the security situation has not improved. On the contrary, it continues to amplify while deteriorating. And to declare:

“In Mali, we have been very clear about our concerns. The Malian junta invited Wagner to the country. And the terrorist situation has only worsened. The Russians provide some equipment, but this equipment works poorly. We saw this recently with the supply of an airplane which crashed and caused civilian casualties. There are many reports of abuses against the populations, they encourage the Malian forces to deny Minusma access to part of the center of the country. And we worry that these forces are not interested in the security of Malians, but rather in their personal enrichment and the money of Mali. Neighboring countries are very worried. We work with them, especially on their borders so that Wagner and terrorism remain on the Malian side”.

All informed observers are positive that terrorist attacks have increased and that the ruling military junta is clearly struggling to deal with them. And experts indicate that the number of terrorist attacks has increased by 30% in the last six months preceding the visit of Victoria Nuland, the US Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs.

The American diplomat did not bother with protocol to conclude in these terms: "This interim government made very bad choices by bringing in Wagner and associating them with its security apparatus and we are seeing the results with violence and acts of terrorism on the rise and United Nations forces pushed out.”

The military junta which, after having long denied the presence of Russian mercenaries from the Wagner group, has finally admitted it, however, does not agree. It continues to maintain that the security situation has clearly reversed in favor of the Malian armed forces. But, at the present time when she is strongly criticized from all sides, can she say anything else? Only, there are unmistakable clues as to the worsening of the situation with the terrorist attacks which are constantly on the increase.

For reasons that are specific to the military junta in power in Bamako, it has decided to call on the paramilitaries of the Russian private security group Wagner, and to break with France, its former colonial power, which it has accused of all evils of Mali. Including supporting the Jihadists. By privileging its relations with Moscow, the attempt to justify its latest accusations against France at the UN General Assembly has proven to be a fiasco. Mali was unable to provide the formal proof that it claimed to have, shouting from the rooftops. On the contrary, the accusations turned out to be a diplomatic boomerang and turned against Mali, by dint of wanting to pull too much on the accelerator of populism or anti-Western sentiment.

It should be remembered that relations between France and the military junta in power in Mali have never been appeased. If the involvement of Wagner's Russian mercenaries in the country is undoubtedly the basis of disenchantment, it was undoubtedly dictated by political calculations on the Malian side. By dint of undiplomatic exchanges, they ended up getting worse. To the point that the Ambassador of France, Joël Meyer, was ordered to leave Mali within 72 hours in February 2022 and that an ultimatum was given to the French soldiers to leave the country. And on Monday August 15 at 1 p.m., the French Army General Staff announced on Twitter that “the last French soldiers from Operation Barkhane still on Malian soil have crossed the border between Mali and Niger. They came from the Gao desert operational platform, now transferred to the Malian Armed Forces (FAMa)”. Since then, the French Force Barkhane has repositioned itself in Niger. And even if the Barkhane force was driven out of Mali by the military junta in power since 2020, which called on Russian mercenaries from the paramilitary group Wagner, the fact remains that around 3,000 French soldiers are still deployed in the Sahel. Among which some 1,730 on the territory of Niger.

Since then, to tell the truth, the security situation has only deteriorated on the field and throughout the country. On January 30, 2023, RFI even gave exclusive information that Iyad Ag Ghaly met with representatives of armed groups in the North, signatories to the 2015 peace agreement in northern Mali. The interview(s) took place near Kidal. The leader of the JNIM (Support Group for Islam and Muslims), linked to al-Qaeda, would like to concentrate everyone's efforts against the Islamic State group but without entering into a formal alliance with them. A situation which shows, if need be, that the North of Mali is completely beyond the control of the military junta in power in Bamako and the mercenaries of the Wagner Group supposed to come and help put an end to this situation.

By Jean Kebayo

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